2008 ~ Stock Picks 

 
 

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  • May 2008 (1)
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  • January 2008 (4)
  • February 2008 (5)
  • March 2008 (2)
  • April 2008 (4)
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    January 2008 Stock Picks
    Stock Name SYM Exch. Sector Industry Date Picked Pick Price
    (per share)
    ASG
    Denbury Resources Inc.    DNR     NYSE     Energy   Oil & Gas Operations   01/04/08 $31.16   48.20 (Good)  
    Arena Resources Inc    ARD     NYSE     Energy   Oil & Gas Operations   01/11/08 $42.12   48.96 (Good)  
    The Mosaic Co.    MOS     NYSE     Basic Materials   Chemical Manufacturing   01/18/08 $80.02   42.84 (Good)  
    Meridian Bioscience Inc.    VIVO     NASD     Healthcare   Biotechnology & Drugs   01/25/08 $32.60   52.02 (Very Good)  

          Denbury Resources Inc. (NYSE: DNR) is engaged in the acquisition, development, operation and exploration of oil and natural gas properties in the Gulf Coast region of the United States, primarily in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas. DNR's tertiary operations are its principal focus and core assets. To date, DNR does not have any industry competition in its region of operation. Generally, from the Texas Gulf Coast to Florida, there are no known significant natural sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) except those of DNR's, and these large volumes of CO2 are the foundation for DNR's entire tertiary program.

    CO2 is one of the most efficient tertiary recovery mechanisms for crude oil. The CO2 acts somewhat like a solvent for the oil, removing it from the oil bearing formation as the CO2 passes through the rock. CO2 tertiary floods are unique because they require large volumes of CO2 , which is limited to a few geological basins, one of which is DNR's source near Jackson, Mississippi. Further, the most efficient way to transport CO2 is via dedicated pipelines, which are also in limited supply. Because the sources and methods of transportation of CO2 are limited, only 3% or 250,000 Bbls/d of the United States domestic oil production is derived from tertiary recovery projects. While enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects utilizing CO2 may not be considered a new technology, DNR applies several additional technologies to the fields: well evaluations, new completion or stimulation techniques, operating equipment and seismic interpretations. DNR began its CO2 operations in August 1999 and have since embarked upon a strategic program to improve its knowledge of CO2 production and tertiary recovery to build a dominant position in this niche play. Proved undeveloped reserves associated with DNR's CO2 tertiary operations in Mississippi account for approximately 82% of its proved undeveloped oil reserves. DNR's proved undeveloped natural gas reserves account for approximately 96% of its proved undeveloped natural gas reserves. All of DNR's operations are in the United States.

    The stock's price gained 29.6% over the past 3 months (vs. the Industry's 30.1%); 56.7% over the past 6 months (vs. the  Industry's58.8%); and 139.1% over the past 12 months (vs. the Industry's 158.5%).
    DNR is classified as a mid-cap growth company (with a market cap of $7.61B) that is rated to outperform the market over the next six months with a Risk Level of 3 (Average). DNR was originally incorporated in Canada in 1951. In 1992, DNR acquired all of the shares of a United States operating company, Denbury Management, Inc. (DMI), and subsequent to the merger,  all of DNR's Canadian assets were sold. Since that time, all of DNR's operations have been in the United States. DNR's principal executive offices are at Plana, Texas. DNR  has 629 employees.

    Sector: Energy; Industry: Oil & Gas Operations; Ticker:DNR;  Exch: NYSE;  01/04/08 Closing Price: $31.16

     STOCK GRADE (ASG):  48.20  ( GOOD)               

    BUSINESS & FINANCIAL SUMMARY; KEY STATS (Yahoo)
    EXPANDED BUSINESS DESCRIPTION (Reuters)
    STOCK INFO/RESEARCH (MSN)
    COMPETITORS
    (CNN Money)
    OWNERSHIP (MSN)
    KEY DEVELOPMENTS (MSN), RECENT NEWS (MSN) & HEADLINES  (Yahoo)
    HISTORICAL PRICES (Yahoo) & PRICE CHART (IQChart)
    RISK LEVEL: 2 (Less than average) (MSN)
    COMPANY'S WEB SITE

    Management's Effectiveness (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Return on Equity:        17.33%
    Profitability (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Profit Margin:        24.94%
    Stock's Growth Record (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Revenue:        30.54%
    . . . EPS:        17.55%
    . . . Price:      139.14%
    . . . Dividend:          NA
    PE & EPS (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Price/Earnings:        38.66
    . . . Earnings/Share:          0.61
    Price / Share (Pick Date, Closing Price) . . . Pick Date 01/04/2007:     $31.16

    COMMENT: The stock's pick price (of $31.16) is over the 13- and 50-day EMA price range; i.e., higher than
     the 13-day EMA price (of $29.86) and over the 50-day EMA (of $27.67) by 4.35% and 12.61% respectively. This suggests that the pick price is presently NOT timely NOR advantageous buy price for the stock.  (Note: A stock's EMA price changes with time).

    . . .    
    Price / Share (13-day EMA) . . . 01/04/2008:      $29.86
    Price / Share (50-day EMA) . . . 01/04/2008:      $27.67
    Price / Share (13-day EMA) . . .         Current:
    Price / Share (50-day EMA) . . .         Current:
    Price / Share (Current) . . . Current Price       Quote
    Price / Share (Historical) . . . Historical Price       Quote

    SPECIAL NOTE:

    1. Denbury posts record or near record production, cash flow and earnings figures for 3rd quarter of 2007. (Business Wire, November 1, 2007).
    2. Denbury reports total proved oil and natural gas reserves as of December 31, 2006 which replaces 260% ot the company's 2006 production
    (SmartBrief; February 6, 2007). 3. Denbury partners with Rentech Inc. for the use of all captured carbon dioxide from Rentechs proposed synthetic fuels plant to be built in Mississippi.(SmartBrief; June 25, 2007)
    4. OPEC, crude oil prices and Denbury's stock price.
    (Reuters; November 12, 2007).
    5. "Energy Stocks on the Cheap". Denbury is among these stocks.
    (Forbes; December 15, 2007)

    ^Top page


        

          Arena Resources Inc. (NYSE: ARD) is engaged in oil and natural gas acquisition, exploration, development and production, with activities currently in Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico and Kansas. ARD focus is on developing its existing properties, while continuing to pursue acquisitions of oil and gas properties with upside potential. Since its inception in August 2000, ARD have built its asset base and achieved growth primarily through property acquisitions. ARD have a portfolio of oil and natural gas reserves, with approximately 84% of its proved reserves consisting of oil and approximately 16% consisting of natural gas. Of those reserves approximately 28% of the proved reserves are classified as proved developed producing, or “PDP,” approximately 5% of the proved reserves are classified as proved developed non-producing, or “PDNP,” approximately 5% are classified as proved developed behind pipe “PDBP,” and approximately 62% are classified as proved undeveloped, or “PUD.”

    ARD principally sell its oil and natural gas production to end users, marketers and other purchasers that have access to nearby pipeline facilities. In areas where there is no practical access to pipelines, oil is trucked to storage facilities. For fiscal year 2006, sales to one customer, Navajo Refining Company, represented 82% of oil and gas revenues. At December 31, 2006, this customer represented 80% of ARD's accounts receivable. Approximately thirty-nine percent (39%) of ARD's reserves for the year ended December 31, 2006 are associated with secondary recovery projects that are either in the initial stage of implementation or are scheduled for implementation. ARD anticipate that secondary recovery will be attempted by the use of waterflood of these reserves, and the exact project initiation dates and, by the very nature of waterflood operations, the exact completion dates of such projects, are undetermined.

    The stock's price gained 21.0% over the past 3 months (vs. the Industry's 41.9%); 40.6% over the past 6 months (vs. the  Industry's 88.6%); and 125.5% over the past 12 months (vs. the Industry's 246.3%).
    ARD is classified as a mid-cap growth company (with a market cap of $1.44B) that is rated to outperform the market over the next six months with a Risk Level of 2 (Less than average). ARD was incorporated in 2000 and its principal executive offices are located at Tulsa, Oklahoma. ARD has 52 employees.

    Sector: Energy; Industry: Oil & Gas Operations; Ticker:ARD;  Exch: NYSE;  01/11/08 Closing Price: $42.12

     STOCK GRADE (ASG):  48.96  (GOOD)               

    BUSINESS & FINANCIAL SUMMARY; KEY STATS (Yahoo)
    EXPANDED BUSINESS DESCRIPTION (Reuters)
    STOCK INFO/RESEARCH (MSN)
    COMPETITORS
    (CNN Money)
    OWNERSHIP (MSN)
    KEY DEVELOPMENTS (MSN), RECENT NEWS (MSN) & HEADLINES  (Yahoo)
    HISTORICAL PRICES (Yahoo) & PRICE CHART (IQChart)
    RISK LEVEL: 2 (Less than average) (MSN)
    COMPANY'S WEB SITE

    Management's Effectiveness (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Return on Equity:        16.70%
    Profitability (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Profit Margin:        37.11%
    Stock's Growth Record (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Revenue:      131.24%
    . . . EPS:      106.29%
    . . . Price:      125.54%
    . . . Dividend:          NA
    PE & EPS (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Price/Earnings:        45.29
    . . . Earnings/Share:          0.93
    Price / Share (Pick Date, Closing Price) . . . Pick Date 01/11/2008:     $42.12

    COMMENT: The stock's pick price (of $42.12) is over the 13- and 50-day EMA price range; i.e., higher than
     the 13-day EMA price (of $41.70) and 50-day EMA (of $38.91) by 1.00% and 8.24% respectively. This suggests that the pick price is presently NOT timely NOR advantageous buy price for the stock.  (Note: A stock's EMA price changes with time).

    . . .    
    Price / Share (13-day EMA) . . . 01/11/2008:      $41.70
    Price / Share (50-day EMA) . . . 01/11/2008:      $38.91
    Price / Share (13-day EMA) . . .         Current:
    Price / Share (50-day EMA) . . .         Current:
    Price / Share (Current) . . . Current Price       Quote
    Price / Share (Historical) . . . Historical Price       Quote

    SPECIAL NOTE:

    1. Arena Resources had record third quarter financial and operating results. (Business Wire, November 9, 2007).
    2. Arena Resources
    adds an estimated 8 million barrels of oil equivalent of proved reserves in West Texas. (Business Wire; December 12, 2007).

    ^Top page


      The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients for the global agriculture industry. MOS is a single source supplier of phosphate-, potash- and nitrogen-based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients. MOS serve customers in approximately 45 countries; have phosphate mining operations in Florida and phosphate production facilities in Florida and Louisiana; potash mines and production facilities in Saskatchewan, Canada, New Mexico and Michigan; strategic equity investments in phosphate and nitrogen production facilities in Brazil and Canada; and other production, blending or distribution operations or equity investments in nearly a dozen countries, including the top four nutrient consuming countries in the world.

    MOS is organized into four business segments: Phosphates, Potash, Offshore and Nitrogen. The Phosphates Segment is the largest producer of phosphate fertilizer in the world and the largest producer of phosphate-based animal feed ingredients in the United States. MOS sell phosphate-based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients throughout North America and internationally. The Potash Segment is the third-largest producer of potash in the world. MOS sell potash throughout North America and internationally, principally as fertilizer, but also for use in industrial applications and, to a lesser degree, as animal feed ingredients. The Offshore Segment consists of sales offices, fertilizer blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses in several key international countries. The Nitrogen Segment includes the distribution of nitrogen-based fertilizer in North America.

    The stock's price gained 28.0% over the past 3 months (vs. the Industry's 35.7%); 106.3% over the past 6 months (vs. the  Industry's 120.7%); and 264.7% over the past 12 months (vs. the Industry's 298.4%). MOS is classified as a large-cap growth company (with a market cap of $35.46B) that is rated to outperform the market over the next six months with a Risk Level of 3 (Average). MOS was incorporated in 2004 and its principal executive offices are located at Plymouth, Minnesota. MOS has 7,100 employees.

    Sector: Basic Materials; Industry: Chemical Manufacturing; Ticker:MOS;  Exch: NYSE;  01/18/08 Closing Price: $80.02

     STOCK GRADE (ASG):  42.84  (GOOD)               

    BUSINESS & FINANCIAL SUMMARY; KEY STATS (Yahoo)
    EXPANDED BUSINESS DESCRIPTION (Reuters)
    STOCK INFO/RESEARCH (MSN)
    COMPETITORS
    (CNN Money)
    OWNERSHIP (MSN)
    KEY DEVELOPMENTS (MSN), RECENT NEWS (MSN) & HEADLINES  (Yahoo)
    HISTORICAL PRICES (Yahoo) & PRICE CHART (IQChart)
    RISK LEVEL: 3 (Average) (MSN)
    COMPANY'S WEB SITE

    Management's Effectiveness (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Return on Equity:        21.37%
    Profitability (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Profit Margin:        13.19%
    Stock's Growth Record (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Revenue:          8.82%
    . . . EPS:     374.95%
    . . . Price:     377.43%
    . . . Dividend:          NA
    PE & EPS (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Price/Earnings:       48.26
    . . . Earnings/Share:          2.13
    Price / Share (Pick Date, Closing Price) . . . Pick Date 01/18/2008:     $80.02

    COMMENT: The stock's pick price (of $80.02) is under the 13- and 50-day EMA price range; i.e., lower than
     the 13-day EMA price (of $91.33) and 50-day EMA (of $82.19) by -12.38% and -2.65% respectively. This suggests that the pick price IS presently timely AND advantageous buy price for the stock.  (Note: A stock's EMA price changes with time).

    . . .    
    Price / Share (13-day EMA) . . . 01/18/2008:      $91.33
    Price / Share (50-day EMA) . . . 01/18/2008:      $82.19
    Price / Share (13-day EMA) . . .         Current:
    Price / Share (50-day EMA) . . .         Current:
    Price / Share (Current) . . . Current Price       Quote
    Price / Share (Historical) . . . Historical Price       Quote

    SPECIAL NOTE:

    1. Mosaic beats the Street's earning estimates. (Forbes.com; January 9, 2008)
    2. Mosaic's 6-fold increase in profit propels 3-fold increase in share price. (The Motley Fool; January 11, 2008).
    3. Mosaic thriving on fertile ground.
    (Forbes.com; December 20, 2007)
    4. Mosaic is best-managed company in the Chemicals industry.
    ("America's Best Big Companies"; Forbes.com; December 20, 2007)
    5. Crops & Ag sector pulling back; a buy opportunity or just let the good times go? (MarketWatch; January 15, 2008).

    ^Top page



        Meridian Bioscience Inc. (NASD: VIVO)
    is an integrated life science company whose principal businesses are the development, manufacture, sale and distribution of diagnostic test kits, primarily for certain respiratory, gastrointestinal, viral and parasitic infectious diseases; the manufacture and distribution of bulk antigens, antibodies, and reagents used by researchers and other diagnostic manufacturers; and the contract manufacture of proteins and other biologicals for use by biopharmaceutical and biotechnology companies engaged in research for new drugs and vaccines. VIVO's diagnostic test kits utilize immunodiagnostic technologies, which test samples of blood, urine, stool, and other body fluids or tissue for the presence of antigens and antibodies of specific infectious diseases. VIVO's diagnostic products are used principally in the detection of respiratory diseases, such as pneumonia, valley fever, influenza, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV); gastrointestinal diseases, such as stomach ulcers (H. pylori ), antibiotic-associated diarrhea (C. difficile ) and pediatric diarrhea (Rotavirus and Adenovirus); viral diseases, such as Mononucleosis, Herpes Simplex, Chicken Pox and Shingles (Varicella-Zoster) and Cytomegalovirus.

    The global market for infectious disease tests continues to expand as new disease states are identified, new therapies become available, and worldwide standards of living and access to health care improve. More importantly, within this market there is a continuing shift from conventional testing, which requires highly-trained personnel and lengthy turnaround times for test results, to more technologically advanced testing which can be performed by less highly-trained personnel and completed in minutes or hours.

    The stock's price gained 0.9% over the past 3 months (vs. the Industry's -11.6%); 42.9% over the past 6 months (vs. the  Industry's 6.3%); and 67.9% over the past 12 months (vs. the Industry's 18.9%). VIVO is classified as a small-cap growth company (with a market cap of $1.30B) that is rated to outperform the market over the next six months with a Risk Level of 2 (Less than average). Meridian was founded in 1976 and its principal executive offices are located at Cincinnati, Ohio. VIVO has 396 employees.

    Sector: Healthcare; Industry: Biotechnology & Drug; Ticker: VIVO;  Exch: NASD;  01/25/08 Closing Price: $32.60

     STOCK GRADE (ASG):  52.02  (VERY GOOD)               

    BUSINESS & FINANCIAL SUMMARY; KEY STATS (Yahoo)
    EXPANDED BUSINESS DESCRIPTION (Reuters)
    STOCK INFO/RESEARCH (MSN)
    COMPETITORS
    (CNN Money)
    OWNERSHIP (MSN)
    KEY DEVELOPMENTS (MSN), RECENT NEWS (MSN) & HEADLINES  (Yahoo)
    HISTORICAL PRICES (Yahoo) & PRICE CHART (IQChart)
    RISK LEVEL: 2 (Less than average) (MSN)
    COMPANY'S WEB SITE

    Management's Effectiveness (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Return on Equity:       25.78%
    Profitability (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Profit Margin:       21.10%
    Stock's Growth Record (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Revenue:       13.42%
    . . . EPS:       43.70%
    . . . Price:       67.92%
    . . . Dividend:       42.86%
    PE & EPS (Trailing 12 Mo.) . . . Price/Earnings:       46.64
    . . . Earnings/Share:          0.70
    Price / Share (Pick Date, Closing Price) . . . Pick Date 01/25/2008:     $32.60

    COMMENT: The stock's pick price (of $32.60) is under the 13- and over the 50-day EMA price range; i.e., lower than
     the 13-day EMA price (of $33.20) and higher than the 50-day EMA (of $31.78) by -1.81% and 2.58% respectively. This suggests that the pick price IS presently timely AND advantageous buy price for the stock.  (Note: A stock's EMA price changes with time).

    . . .    
    Price / Share (13-day EMA) . . . 01/25/2008:      $33.20
    Price / Share (50-day EMA) . . . 01/25/2008:      $31.78
    Price / Share (13-day EMA) . . .         Current:
    Price / Share (50-day EMA) . . .         Current:
    Price / Share (Current) . . . Current Price       Quote
    Price / Share (Historical) . . . Historical Price       Quote

    SPECIAL NOTE:

    1. Meridian reports record fiscal 2007 operating results. (Business Wire; November 14, 2007)
    2. Meridian provides sales and earnings guidance for fiscal 2008. (SmartBrief August 14, 2007).
    3. Meridian's profits surge in 1Q 2008.
    (Cincinnati Enquirer; January 22, 2008)
    4. Discipline, R&D Boost Meridian
    (CNN Money; January 25 2008).
    5. Top stocks of the next 50 yrs. Meridian's among the stocks.
    (Motley Fool; November 24, 2007)

    ^Top page




    February 2008 Stock Picks
    Stock Name SYM Exch. Sector Industry Date Picked Pick Price
    (per share)
    ASG
    Randgold Resources Ltd. ADR    GOLD     NASD     Basic Material   Gold & Silver   02/04/08 $44.19   49.73 (Good)  
    Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Inc.    RBA     NYSE     Services   Retail (Specialty)   02/08/08 $84.19   52.79 (Very Good)  
    Comp Siderurgica Nacional ADS.    SID     NYSE